How Trump won the Iran War but lost the Negotiations
Photo: Lynn Woolley for WBDaily
Give Donald Trump credit for being the first president to try to eliminate the threat of the Iranian extremist death cult. And he had a point when he said we won the war in the first hour.
Iran never could have won the war.
It was easy for our military to take out most of their navy and air power. What Iran had on its side was time. There are no mid-terms in Iran, and so they hung on while President Trump was insisting Iran was desperate for a deal. They simply closed the Strait of Hormuz and waited.
Sure enough, the high cost of gasoline back home changed the calculus. The people didn’t want to pay the price at the pump to keep nukes out of the hands of the mullahs, and the Democrats took Iran’s side. The pressure became too much, and the deal seems to put us back where we were before the war.
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Of course, things change. This deal could get better, or worse.
Maybe the devil is in the details, but the details we know about, as outlined in the Memo of Understanding (MOU), all favor Iran except for one item. That is, of course, the demand on the part of the United States that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. That’s a tall order since Russia or China could easily provide them with nukes, but we’re not even there yet. The Iranians say the no-nukes demand is a red line they will not cross.
Video: CBS News – Democrats and some Republicans fuming at Trump’s Iran deal
At this writing, we find ourselves in a conundrum. The only deal we have regarding nukes is to keep talking another 60 days. If the United States and Iran share that red line, but we’re on opposing sides of it, then what? Because that’s where we are.
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There appears little to no chance that either side gives in on that. Iran simply is unlikely to agree to it, and would not abide by it even if they did. Trump, on the other hand, will look like a bumbling fool if he gives in on that demand. That the stated reason for the war. Trump cannot give in.
So, we have the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.
Trump had two ways to go at this point. First (and most logically to my mind), he could have resumed bombing. The ayatollahs understand force, and not much else. Beat them into submission, and demand the total surrender that Trump originally told the world he would get. After once suggesting that he might obliterate the Iranian civilization, he became a dove on this issue, likely being influenced by Vice President J.D. Vance. Vance never wanted this war, but now it’s hanging around his neck.
Video: Trump made threats that saw no follow-through, and the mullahs noticed that
The second way Trump could have gone was to pretend that getting us back to where we started is a victory. Remember, the Strait of Hormuz was open when the war started. Iran closed the Strait because of the war. Also, gasoline prices were lower and not a domestic problem for Trump or the Republicans. They are a huge problem now because of the war.
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Trump took the road more easily traveled and decided (or maybe Vance did) that it was best to give Iran nearly everything it wanted to get us back to where we were, which means 13 Americans died for nothing and we spent million on munitions and on waging the war. But gasoline prices will fall. Right now, that’s what seems important to the administration.
In my mind, it is no victory when we end up where we started. We could have had an open Strait of Hormuz and low gasoline prices simply by not starting the war. After all, Operation Midnight Hammer had, we were told, “obliterated” Iran’s capacity to make nuclear weapons. The fact that someone stated Iran was ten days away from making a bomb does not mean that is so, and our CIA should have known the veracity of that.
A bigger problem is that Iran demanded cash and very well may get it.
We’re told the $300 billion dollar reconstruction fund will not be paid by the United States, but who cares? No matter where it comes from, I personally do not wish to see Iran get a nickel so long as the Islamic regime is in place.
But that’s not all, folks. Iran also demanded, and may get its embargoed funds released from any kind of sanctions. Iran will agree to anything get the funds, but likely will do what they wish once they have access. Finally, with the Strait opened up just as soon as the MOU was signed, Iran is back in the oil business big time. Iran is about to be very rich.
Do you know what a rich Iran will do? It will fund the three Hs: Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. I see nothing in the MOU to stop them, and I nothing in there to help the Iranian people who are still among the world’s most repressed and where women get shot in the street for incorrectly wearing a hijab.
Is there good news? Well, of course.
First of all, our brilliant military set Iran’s military back by at least a decade and maybe much more. We literally had Iran on its knees.
Video: Texas Senator Ted Cruz – Not one penny to the ayatollah
Second, Congress may step in to stop the MOU from becoming a finished agreement, heavily tilted toward the interests of Iran. Few in Congress like the deal. Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, who will likely run for the Republican nomination, says the deal is bad if it gives a penny to the ayatollahs. Lots of Republicans in Congress – MAGA and establishment – agree with him. I agree with him.
Trump will likely try to go around Congress, insisting the agreement is not a treaty. That would prevent it from having to be approved by two-thirds of the Senate. I hope is does have to gain that approval. It won’t get it, and a very bad deal will be averted. Then what? Who knows. Maybe we start bombing again, but Trump seems to have no stomach for it.
Video: Trump jokes that he’s blaming JD Vance if the Iran deal signing ‘doesn’t work out’
What about J.D. Vance? In response to what may have been a serious question Fox News’ Peter Doocy, Trump joked that if the deal works out fine, he will take credit. If not, he will put the blame on J.D. Vance. Vance may not be laughing. His presidential hopes are now tied inexorably to this deal.
Iran, meanwhile, is enjoying the Art of the Deal.
They beat Trump at his own game. They see American TV. They heard the Democrats cheering for Trump’s defeat and claiming that we had lost the war. They heard all of us complain about high gasoline prices as if that is far more important than religious lunatics having a nuclear weapon. They watched and they waited. They may have won. Sixty days after the signing of the MOU, we’ll know more than we do now.
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Meanwhile, Iran can start making big bucks off oil again. It can start planning its next steps to get a nuclear weapon. Israeli Prime Mister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom the world loves to hate, is still stuck with Hezbollah in Lebanon following the total screwing of Israel that this deal brought. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, totally unscathed by all this, is looking like a good bet for the nomination, and that may be a good thing.
Where does this leave MAGA?
If Trump manages to forge some sort of victory out of this war and the deal to end it, Vance may be able to recover and keep the movement alive. If not, someone else – Rubio, Cruz, DeSantis, Kennedy, Haley – may start a new movement combining the best of old-style Republican Party ideals with a dash of America First and No Forever Wars added in. No one in the MAGA movement is tired of winning, but we have to learn from our mistakes – even Trump’s – to beat the Democrats who hate everything Trump stands for.
Trump would be flying high had he not thought Iran would be another Venezuela. But it wasn’t, and he’s not. But wait! The Democrats are saddled with New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the new Democratic Socialist movement. That may very well be enough to keep a war in the Middle East from taking out the Republicans. Fasten your seatbelt. It’s going to be a bumpy ride for the next sixty days and beyond.
Lynn Woolley is a Texas-based author, broadcaster, and songwriter. Follow his podcast at https://www.PlanetLogic.us. Check out his author’s page at https://www.Amazon.com/author/lynnwoolley.
Order books direct from Lynn at https://PlanetLogicPress.Square.Site. Email Lynn at lwoolley9189@gmail.com.
This book was well thought-out. But will you still like it after 60 days?
